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Umberto Collodel is a Senior Economist in the Monetary Policy division at the Central Bank of Malta, where he has been working since October 2023. He is a member of the ECB Task Force on Banking Analysis, where he collaborates with experts across the Eurosystem to assess banking sector trends and their implications for monetary policy. Dr Collodel holds a PhD in Economics from the Paris School of Economics (2022), where his doctoral research examined the interplay between macroeconomic forecasting, financial crises, and complexity. He demonstrated that Early Warning Systems can effectively predict financial crises and assessed the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts by major international institutions. To understand how forecasting challenges have evolved, he developed a novel dataset of IMF archival documents spanning several decades.
Prior to joining the Central Bank of Malta, Dr Collodel gained extensive international experience at leading economic institutions. He served as an External Consultant at the OECD in Paris and held multiple positions at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, including Research Officer and PhD Summer Intern in the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). During his time at the IMF, he contributed to the IEO Evaluation of the IMF's Emergency Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, analyzing the Fund's policy advice and forecasting processes during this unprecedented crisis. His research interests span monetary policy uncertainty, macroeconomic forecasting, financial crises, and the application of innovative machine learning techniques to economic analysis. He is currently exploring the use of Large Language Models to analyze ECB communications and market reactions, as well as leveraging granular retailer-level price data to improve inflation nowcasting for Malta.
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